Implications of climate change on water availability in a seasonally dry tropical forest in the Northeast of Brazil

Climate change is already affecting life on Earth and mitigation measures must be taken, which require proper identification of the regions most vulnerable to these changes. This study assesses impact climate water availability (water surplus, deficit precipitation minus evapotranspiration) classification across Caatinga biome, located within Brazilian semiarid region. To obtain surplus deficit, balance Thornthwaite & Matther (1955) was applied considering current scenario (historical series from 1961 2015); optimistic scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) for a radiative forcing 4.5 W.m-2 (RCP4.5), i.e., temperature increase 1.5 ºC reduction in rainfall 15%; pessimistic, 8.5 (RCP8.5), i.e. taking an 4.0 20%. The results showed that strongly impacted, especially pessimistic with no negative balance. For only small portion presented water-surplus positive Projections also large part changed arid climate.